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趙偉、屠強(qiáng)（趙偉系申萬宏源證券首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，中國首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家論壇理事）

Abstract

Event: On March 7, the海關(guān) published the 1-2 month export and import data. Exports (in US dollar terms) increased by 2.3%, compared to a year ago's 10.7%; imports (in US dollar terms) decreased by 8.4%, compared to 1.0% year-on-year.

Core proposition: The reason for the misalignment between the春節(jié) offset and export performance is not due to the misalignment of external demand, but primarily because the end of the "搶出口" phenomenon is the key.

The 1-2 month export growth rate showed a significant decline compared to the previous year, primarily due to the impact of the春節(jié) offset. From the PMI data of global manufacturing for February (moving average over three months), the PMI increased slightly to 50.1%. However, the 1-2 month export growth rate was still 8.4 percentage points lower than the year ago level (2.3%), with part of the decline attributed to the春節(jié) offset. Given that the 2025春節(jié) is offset by one month earlier than 2024, the impact on 2025 1-2 month export growth will be more significant, estimated at approximately 1.5 percentage points.

The end of the "搶出口" phenomenon has a more pronounced impact on export perturbations, with two aspects: First, the end of "搶出口" for the US; Second, the cooling of "搶出口" for emerging markets. From a country-specific perspective, the 1-2 month export growth rate for the US decreased by 12.5 percentage points to 3.2%. The impact on emerging economies and developing regions was more significant, reflecting a slowdown in the progress of China's pre-emptive global supply chain adjustments. Notably, the growth rate for Africa decreased by 25.5 percentage points to -0.6%, while that for Latin America increased by 13.2 percentage points to 3.8%, and that for ASEAN increased by 13.4 percentage points to 5.6%.

At the product level, the main reason for the decline in export growth rates was concentrated in products that were heavily dependent on the US in the previous month 12. At the middle level, the growth rate of container throughput in January was high, but it dropped significantly in February. In December of the previous year, China's exports to the US were heavily dependent on two categories: high demand for US products and supply chain coordination with emerging economies. However, both categories of exports showed significant declines. For products with high demand, such as shoes and boots, the growth rate dropped significantly (-18.7 percentage points to -18.0%); for products in the category of coordinated supply chains, such as general machinery, the growth rate also dropped significantly (-1.6% to -30.6%).

The duration of the "搶出口" phenomenon is likely to be shorter in the current round, primarily due to differences in the implementation of tariffs. First, the previous round of 301 tariffs were implemented in batches, allowing enterprises to anticipate and adjust their export strategies. Once the tariffs were fully implemented, the "搶出口" phenomenon for the affected products usually ended quickly, while the exports not affected by tariffs continued to grow. This round, however, is based on the "Emergency Economic Rights Act", imposing a 10% tariffs on all products. Second, the previous round of tariffs was implemented with a longer interval, and this round has a faster implementation rhythm, reducing the time companies have to respond. If Trump revises the 301 tariffs on April 3 and adjusts the policy, a new "搶出口" phenomenon may occur.

Looking ahead, the impact of the春節(jié) offset on the year-on-year growth rate will remain significant, and its impact will be greater than that of the end of the "搶出口" phenomenon and the tariffs, which may push the 3-4 month export growth rate to rebound. The negative impact of the春節(jié) offset on Chinese exports is typically evident within about 30 days after the festival. Since the 2024春節(jié) fell on February 10, the 2024 March export growth rate has not yet fully recovered, resulting in a lower base. Therefore, the 2025 March export growth rate is likely to rebound significantly. Based on the adjustment factor for the春節(jié) offset, this factor is expected to directly push up the March export growth rate by 6.6 percentage points, with its impact magnitude greater than that of the 10% tariffs on all products under the 301 tariffs and the end of the "搶出口" phenomenon. However, after removing the impact of the春節(jié) offset, the actual March export growth rate may still face significant pressure.

Regular tracking shows that both imports and exports are weakening, but there is a structural分化.

消費(fèi)品出口呈現(xiàn)分化態(tài)勢(shì)：消費(fèi)類電子產(chǎn)品出口同比出現(xiàn)明顯回升，手機(jī)、集成電路等均呈現(xiàn)不同程度的增長，但家具出口則出現(xiàn)明顯下滑。從行業(yè)細(xì)分看，中間品出口表現(xiàn)分化，資本品出口則呈現(xiàn)明顯回落。通用機(jī)械、汽車零部件等行業(yè)的出口明顯縮減，鋼材出口同樣承壓，但肥料出口卻出現(xiàn)了明顯回升。

對(duì)主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體和新興市場國家的出口增速均出現(xiàn)下降：發(fā)達(dá)國家方面，對(duì)美國、歐盟、英國等主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的出口增速均有所回落；新興市場國家和地區(qū)的出口增速則呈現(xiàn)更明顯的下滑趨勢(shì)。其中，非洲、俄羅斯、拉美和東盟等地區(qū)的出口增速降幅較為明顯。

進(jìn)口總額出現(xiàn)明顯下滑：進(jìn)口總額較上年同期明顯下降，主要受到加工貿(mào)易為主機(jī)電產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口以及內(nèi)需驅(qū)動(dòng)的大宗商品進(jìn)口雙雙承壓的影響。從美元計(jì)價(jià)數(shù)據(jù)看，進(jìn)口總額同比下降9.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，較去年同期有所回落。具體來看，機(jī)電產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口增速出現(xiàn)反彈，但主要受到集成電路出口大幅下滑的拖累。大宗工業(yè)品進(jìn)口方面，鐵礦石和銅等商品的進(jìn)口增速均出現(xiàn)明顯回落，反映出節(jié)后國內(nèi)投資需求恢復(fù)速度較為緩慢。

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力加大，海外央行貨幣政策調(diào)整預(yù)期，外部政治經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境變化可能對(duì)我國進(jìn)出口產(chǎn)生不利影響。

核心觀點(diǎn)：出口增長主要受到"搶出口"行為結(jié)束以及春節(jié)錯(cuò)位的影響。春節(jié)錯(cuò)位導(dǎo)致1-2月出口增速出現(xiàn)顯著拖累，具體影響約1.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)（春節(jié)調(diào)整后，1-2月同比3.8%）。

"搶出口"行為的階段性結(jié)束成為出口增速回落的主要誘因。從國別出口情況來看，對(duì)美國的出口增速明顯回落12.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，而對(duì)新興市場國家和地區(qū)的出口增速回落則更加明顯。這反映出我國境外供應(yīng)鏈重組的節(jié)奏正在放緩，生產(chǎn)資料出口至新興市場后再加工后出口至美國的生產(chǎn)節(jié)奏出現(xiàn)減速。

海關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)顯示：1-2月進(jìn)出口數(shù)據(jù)表明，出口（美元計(jì)價(jià)）同比增速為2.3%，較去年同期的10.7%明顯回落；進(jìn)口（美元計(jì)價(jià)）同比增速為-8.4%，較去年同期的1.0%大幅下降。

核心觀點(diǎn)：出口增長主要受到"搶出口"行為結(jié)束以及春節(jié)錯(cuò)位的影響。

1-2月出口增速大幅下降并非源于外需明顯疲軟，而是受到了春節(jié)錯(cuò)位的影響。從全球制造業(yè)PMI數(shù)據(jù)來看，2月份制造業(yè)PMI較上月有所回升，其中美國和歐元區(qū)的制造業(yè)PMI均出現(xiàn)小幅改善。但1-2月出口增速仍較去年同期大幅下降8.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，其中部分原因是春節(jié)錯(cuò)位導(dǎo)致的停工影響集中在1-2月，而去年的停工影響集中在2-3月。經(jīng)測算，春節(jié)錯(cuò)位對(duì)今年1-2月出口增速的影響約達(dá)1.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，因此1-2月出口增速為3.8%（春節(jié)調(diào)整后）。

"搶出口"行為的階段性結(jié)束對(duì)出口增速產(chǎn)生顯著影響，具體表現(xiàn)為：其一，對(duì)美國的出口搶奪行為明顯結(jié)束；其二，對(duì)新興市場國家的出口協(xié)同供給"搶出口"行為有所降溫。春節(jié)錯(cuò)位導(dǎo)致的1-2月出口增速下降1.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，而"搶出口"行為的結(jié)束成為出口增速大幅回落的主要誘因。從國別出口情況來看，對(duì)美國的出口增速大幅回落12.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，而對(duì)新興市場國家和地區(qū)的出口增速回落則更加明顯。這反映出我國境外供應(yīng)鏈重組的節(jié)奏正在放緩，生產(chǎn)資料出口至新興市場后再加工后出口至美國的生產(chǎn)節(jié)奏出現(xiàn)減速。

在商品層面，1-2月出口增長速度的下滑主要集中在12月"搶出口"的特定商品類別。從宏觀層面來看，1月份港口貨運(yùn)量的高增長在2月份出現(xiàn)了顯著回落。去年12月"搶出口"現(xiàn)象的兩大主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力是：一是美國對(duì)華高度依賴的商品，其二是新興國家協(xié)同供給類商品。這些商品的出口增速均出現(xiàn)了大幅下滑。舉例而言，美國對(duì)華依賴度較高的商品中，鞋靴類（同比下降18.0%至18.7%）、服裝類（同比下降13.3%至7.1%）等均呈現(xiàn)明顯下滑。而協(xié)同供給類商品中，通用機(jī)械（同比下降30.6%至1.6%）、汽車零配件（同比下降14.9%至0.7%）等商品的出口增速也均出現(xiàn)明顯下行。從中觀數(shù)據(jù)來看，1月份港口外貿(mào)貨運(yùn)量同比增幅達(dá)到13.2%，較2024年12月的9.3%顯著高點(diǎn)。然而，2月份港口貨運(yùn)量同比出現(xiàn)明顯下降（-0.1%），這反映了"搶出口"現(xiàn)象的階段性放緩。

本輪"搶出口"現(xiàn)象的持續(xù)時(shí)間可能短于上一輪，主要原因在于關(guān)稅加征方式的差異。上一輪關(guān)稅加征基于301條款，采取了分批實(shí)施的模式，不同批次的商品加征時(shí)間存在差異，尚未被加稅的商品企業(yè)能夠預(yù)期并調(diào)整出口策略。而根據(jù)以往經(jīng)驗(yàn)，一旦加征關(guān)稅落地，被加稅商品的"搶出口"現(xiàn)象通常會(huì)迅速結(jié)束，而未被加稅商品的"搶出口"現(xiàn)象會(huì)持續(xù)。本輪加征則依據(jù)《國際緊急經(jīng)濟(jì)權(quán)力法案》，對(duì)所有自中國進(jìn)口的商品普遍同時(shí)加征10%的關(guān)稅。其二，上一輪每批商品加征的時(shí)間間隔較長，而本輪加征關(guān)稅的節(jié)奏更快，導(dǎo)致企業(yè)反應(yīng)時(shí)間明顯縮短。不過，特朗普計(jì)劃于4月3日對(duì)301條款進(jìn)行重新審查，若再次調(diào)整關(guān)稅政策，不排除新一輪"搶出口"現(xiàn)象再次出現(xiàn)的可能性。

從長期來看，春節(jié)錯(cuò)位效應(yīng)可能對(duì)同比增速產(chǎn)生持續(xù)影響，且其影響力度可能超過"搶出口"現(xiàn)象結(jié)束和關(guān)稅落地帶來的負(fù)面因素，從而推動(dòng)3月出口增速回升。春節(jié)對(duì)出口的影響通常持續(xù)約30天。由于去年春節(jié)在2月10日，因此去年3月上旬出口尚未完全恢復(fù)，導(dǎo)致基數(shù)偏低。在此背景下，今年3月出口增速預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)出現(xiàn)明顯反彈。根據(jù)春節(jié)調(diào)整因子測算，該因素預(yù)計(jì)將單獨(dú)推升3月出口6.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，其影響幅度可能超過美國對(duì)華加征10%關(guān)稅政策的沖擊，以及"搶出口"效應(yīng)消退帶來的負(fù)面影響。不過，剔除春節(jié)效應(yīng)后，今年3月實(shí)際出口仍可能面臨較大壓力。

常規(guī)跟蹤顯示，進(jìn)出口均呈現(xiàn)弱化趨勢(shì)，但呈現(xiàn)出明顯的結(jié)構(gòu)分化。

消費(fèi)品領(lǐng)域，消費(fèi)電子出口增速出現(xiàn)回升，而汽車機(jī)械、紡織服裝及地產(chǎn)鏈商品出口增速則明顯下降。根據(jù)海關(guān)公布的重點(diǎn)商品數(shù)據(jù)，消費(fèi)電子出口增速回升至+5.3%至6.4%，其中手機(jī)、集成電路、自動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)處理設(shè)備等子類的出口增速分別為-3.3%至12.5%、+11.6%至6.2%、+10.8%至1.3%。相比之下，紡織服裝出口明顯下滑至-15.7%至-9.7%，其中紡織紗線、鞋靴、服裝等商品的出口增速分別為-19.0%至-1.8%、-18.0%至-18.7%、-13.3%至-7.1%。此外，地產(chǎn)鏈出口，如塑料制品、家具、家電等商品的出口增速也均大幅下降，分別為-12.9%至-8.7%、-8.9%至-11.9%、-7.7%至6.4%。

資本品出口增速整體呈現(xiàn)明顯下行趨勢(shì)，中間品出口呈現(xiàn)分化特征。具體而言，通用機(jī)械、汽車零部件、汽車、船舶等商品的出口增速分別為-30.6%至-1.6%、-14.9%至0.7%、-9.0%至3.1%、-8.2%至2.2%。在中間品方面，鋼材、未鍛軋鋁及鋁材的出口增速有所回落，分別為-15.2%至-3.4%、-12.4%至-5.2%。然而，肥料和稀土兩類商品的出口增速卻出現(xiàn)了反彈，分別為+53.7%至52.6%、+12.1%至0.1%。

在發(fā)達(dá)國家層面，對(duì)美國和大多數(shù)非美發(fā)達(dá)國家的出口增速均出現(xiàn)回落，但其幅度小于對(duì)新興國家和地區(qū)出口增速的回落。在發(fā)達(dá)國家中，對(duì)美國出口增速明顯回落，為-12.5%至3.2%；對(duì)歐盟出口增速也有所回落，為-7.5%至1.4%；對(duì)英國出口增速略有回升，為-0.7%至2.6%。此外，對(duì)日本出口增速有所回升，為+5.1%至0.9%。而在新興國家和地區(qū)層面，對(duì)非洲、俄羅斯、拉美、東盟的出口增速均出現(xiàn)了顯著的回落，分別為-25.5%至-0.6%、-16.3%至-10.7%、-13.2%至3.8%、-13.4%至5.6%。

1-2月進(jìn)口增速大幅回落，主要受到加工貿(mào)易為主的機(jī)電產(chǎn)品和反映內(nèi)需的大宗商品進(jìn)口下降的雙重影響。1-2月進(jìn)口（按美元計(jì)價(jià)）同比下降9.4%至-8.4%。具體來看，機(jī)電產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口增速較上月大幅反彈至-5.2%至1.4%，主要受集成電路進(jìn)口增速大幅下挫至-7.3%至2.3%，自動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)處理設(shè)備進(jìn)口增速顯著回升至-3.3%至53.5%所推動(dòng)。而汽車及零配件進(jìn)口增速則有所回落，至-10.3%至-39.4%。大宗工業(yè)品進(jìn)口則呈現(xiàn)出明顯的分化。在進(jìn)口數(shù)量方面，鐵礦石進(jìn)口增速明顯回落至-20.2%至-8.6%，銅進(jìn)口增速小幅回升至-0.4%至1.2%，原油進(jìn)口增速也有所回落至-4.0%至-5.0%。這反映出節(jié)后國內(nèi)投資需求恢復(fù)較為緩慢。