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After experiencing a volatile week, the U.S. stock market experienced significant downturns.
Last week, U.S. stock markets showed a general decline, with the S&P 500 index dropping nearly 3%. Without the supportive remarks from Federal Reserve Chair鮑威爾 during his Friday speech, the market's decline could have been even more pronounced. The NASDAQ 100 index fell by 2.8%, while the Russell 2000 index dropped by 3.7%.
High盛 data revealed that hedge funds were intensifying short positions, with the index of short positions reaching the fastest pace since November 2024. Additionally, long-term investors sold off $50 billion, with the majority of these sales concentrated in technology, financial, and discretionary consumption sectors.
A report by High盛 identified the ten primary factors behind this market turmoil, with economic worries, trade disputes, and technical underperformance playing significant roles.
High盛總結(jié):美股“雪崩”的十大原因
Following High盛's analysis, the ten primary factors behind the U.S. stock market decline are outlined in its research brief.
High盛的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,看跌趨勢(shì)有所加速,總風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口升至歷史新高,而凈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口持續(xù)萎縮。美國(guó)基本面多空策略的總杠桿率上升了0.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn),達(dá)到206.9%(三年期的第98百分位),而凈杠桿率下降了2.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn),降至51.3%(三年期的第31百分位)。因此,基本面多空比率下降了2.3%,降至1.660(與五年最低水平持平)。
StrategyVincent Lin指出,對(duì)沖基金在過(guò)去四周中連續(xù)第四周凈賣出美國(guó)股票(過(guò)去10周中有9周是如此),原因是賣空比例超過(guò)買入比例,達(dá)到1.7:1。本周的總交易活動(dòng)(賣空的代表)是7周以來(lái)的最大增幅。
Looking ahead to March 14 (the day before government shutdown), the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index is expected to be around 3%. Key focus areas will include potential trade developments and the upcoming sell-off season, which concentrates on industrial, consumer, and healthcare sectors.
Additionally, the CPI data on Wednesday will be a significant macroeconomic event. The Federal Reserve will enter a period of silence before its March 18/19 meeting. On the micro level, the earnings season is effectively over, except for some later-announced companies like consumer goods firms,甲骨文和Adobe. Investors should pay close attention to these key events to gauge the market's direction.
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