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編者按：美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普于2月28日在白宮橢圓形辦公室與烏克蘭總統(tǒng)澤連斯基舉行會(huì)談后，美國(guó)方面已明確承諾將全面停止對(duì)烏克蘭的軍事援助。盡管澤連斯基隨后得到了多位歐洲國(guó)家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人電話上的口頭支持，但美國(guó)媒體和歐洲智庫普遍認(rèn)為，如果烏克蘭失去了美國(guó)的軍事援助，歐洲在這一領(lǐng)域幾乎將無能為力。

【來源：《環(huán)球時(shí)報(bào)》】

烏克蘭軍事援助情況如何？美國(guó)《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》2月28日?qǐng)?bào)道稱，特朗普政府官員當(dāng)天表示，美國(guó)對(duì)烏克蘭的所有援助——包括拜登政府期間授權(quán)和批準(zhǔn)提供的最新一批彈藥和設(shè)備——可能很快就會(huì)全部取消。

從俄烏沖突爆發(fā)以來，美國(guó)一直是烏克蘭最大的軍事援助國(guó)。自沖突爆發(fā)以來，拜登政府一直在不斷向?yàn)蹩颂m提供軍事援助。據(jù)美國(guó)《動(dòng)力》網(wǎng)站統(tǒng)計(jì)，僅五角大樓就累計(jì)向?yàn)蹩颂m提供了價(jià)值338億美元的71批軍事援助物資，包括近300萬枚155毫米炮彈、數(shù)萬枚制導(dǎo)火箭炮和反坦克導(dǎo)彈、數(shù)千枚防空導(dǎo)彈、數(shù)千輛裝甲車和數(shù)十輛主戰(zhàn)坦克。

但自特朗普再次當(dāng)選美國(guó)總統(tǒng)以來，美國(guó)尚未宣布新的對(duì)烏克蘭軍事援助。烏克蘭方面已多次提醒，前線的美制導(dǎo)彈等武器已"告急"。

值得注意的是，美國(guó)援助烏克蘭的大批武器裝備在關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻多次扭轉(zhuǎn)了戰(zhàn)局。例如，在單兵導(dǎo)彈方面，美國(guó)提供的"毒刺"防空導(dǎo)彈和"標(biāo)槍"反坦克導(dǎo)彈曾在俄烏沖突前期為烏克蘭軍隊(duì)挫敗俄軍突襲時(shí)發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。北約秘書長(zhǎng)馬克·呂特3月1日表示，正是在特朗普當(dāng)選任總統(tǒng)后，美國(guó)才向?yàn)蹩颂m出售"標(biāo)槍"反坦克導(dǎo)彈，烏克蘭才能在俄烏沖突初期實(shí)施反擊。

美國(guó)軍用偵察機(jī)向?yàn)蹩颂m提供了大量情報(bào)。

遠(yuǎn)程導(dǎo)彈和火炮方面，烏克蘭軍隊(duì)主要使用美制"海馬斯"和M270遠(yuǎn)程火箭炮系統(tǒng)對(duì)俄軍后方縱深的重要目標(biāo)實(shí)施攻擊。拜登政府已取消了烏克蘭軍隊(duì)使用射程300公里的陸軍戰(zhàn)術(shù)導(dǎo)彈（ATACMS）打擊俄羅斯境內(nèi)目標(biāo)的限制。烏克蘭軍隊(duì)此前多次利用這些遠(yuǎn)程火箭炮系統(tǒng)精準(zhǔn)摧毀俄軍控制的大橋、兵營(yíng)和彈藥庫，取得重大戰(zhàn)略成果。

在對(duì)烏軍防至關(guān)重要的防空導(dǎo)彈方面，美國(guó)援助的"愛國(guó)者"和"國(guó)家先進(jìn)地對(duì)空導(dǎo)彈"（NASAMS）防空系統(tǒng)發(fā)揮了重要作用。烏克蘭空軍多次宣稱，"愛國(guó)者"系統(tǒng)成功擊落空襲基輔的"匕首"高超音速導(dǎo)彈，"打破了俄羅斯高超音速導(dǎo)彈無法被擊落的神話"，曾一度極大鼓舞了烏克蘭的士氣。同時(shí)，烏克蘭方面還聲稱，他們已將"愛國(guó)者"導(dǎo)彈秘密前移部署，創(chuàng)造了擊落俄羅斯預(yù)警機(jī)的戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)新紀(jì)錄。

但俄羅斯也針對(duì)性地發(fā)射"伊斯坎德爾"戰(zhàn)術(shù)導(dǎo)彈對(duì)"愛國(guó)者"系統(tǒng)實(shí)施打擊。根據(jù)俄羅斯戰(zhàn)報(bào)，目前已有多輛"愛國(guó)者"導(dǎo)彈發(fā)射車被毀。

由于頻繁的防空攔截行動(dòng)，烏克蘭的“愛國(guó)者”導(dǎo)彈系統(tǒng)一直面臨彈藥儲(chǔ)備緊張的困境。最近，澤連斯基公開承認(rèn)烏克蘭幾乎已不具備“愛國(guó)者”導(dǎo)彈系統(tǒng)，這種現(xiàn)狀正是該問題的真實(shí)寫照。如果美國(guó)全面停止對(duì)烏克蘭的軍事援助，烏克蘭的防空系統(tǒng)不僅將面臨彈藥短缺，其作戰(zhàn)能力也將受到嚴(yán)重影響。

盡管美國(guó)沒有直接向?yàn)蹩颂m提供先進(jìn)戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)，但已批準(zhǔn)比利時(shí)、丹麥、荷蘭和挪威等國(guó)向?yàn)蹩颂m轉(zhuǎn)交至少65架美制F-16戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)。這些戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)目前主要用于攔截俄羅斯從無人機(jī)基地發(fā)動(dòng)的無人機(jī)襲擊。

在地面裝甲車輛方面，美國(guó)已向?yàn)蹩颂m提供了31輛M1A1主戰(zhàn)坦克，以及多輛坦克搶修車、排雷車等。同時(shí)，美國(guó)還援助了成千上萬的步兵戰(zhàn)車、裝甲運(yùn)兵車、防伏擊反地雷車和輕型運(yùn)輸車輛。

根據(jù)美國(guó)法律規(guī)定，向第三國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)交美制武器裝備時(shí)必須征得美國(guó)的官方批準(zhǔn)。在歐洲國(guó)家向?yàn)蹩颂m提供裝備清單中，實(shí)際上也包括了大量美制武器，例如英國(guó)提供的“標(biāo)槍”導(dǎo)彈、德國(guó)和荷蘭援助的“愛國(guó)者”防空系統(tǒng)、挪威援助的M109自行火炮等。目前尚不清楚特朗普政府考慮的“徹底切斷對(duì)烏軍事援助”是否包括限制其他國(guó)家向?yàn)蹩颂m提供美制武器，如果實(shí)施最嚴(yán)格的對(duì)烏武器限制措施，烏克蘭已短缺的武器彈藥問題將更加嚴(yán)峻。

“海馬斯”火箭炮是烏克蘭軍隊(duì)最重要的遠(yuǎn)程打擊火力系統(tǒng)。

美若切斷情報(bào)共享，烏克蘭軍方將失去對(duì)敵情的判斷能力？

除了停止向?yàn)蹩颂m提供武器彈藥等軍事裝備之外，特朗普政府官員還表示，美國(guó)可能會(huì)決定停止向?yàn)蹩颂m提供包括情報(bào)共享、軍事資助、對(duì)烏克蘭部隊(duì)和飛行員的培訓(xùn)以及在德國(guó)設(shè)立一個(gè)管理國(guó)際援助中心等間接支持。

目前烏克蘭在戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)情報(bào)和指揮方面對(duì)美國(guó)的依賴程度遠(yuǎn)高于武器裝備。美國(guó)《海軍時(shí)報(bào)》曾披露，美軍電子偵察機(jī)、預(yù)警機(jī)和無人機(jī)幾乎每天都在黑海等靠近前線的前沿地帶進(jìn)行長(zhǎng)時(shí)間巡邏，利用先進(jìn)的機(jī)載設(shè)備實(shí)時(shí)收集前線俄軍部署和調(diào)動(dòng)情報(bào)，為烏克蘭的針對(duì)性反擊提供準(zhǔn)確信息。就在2月5日，美國(guó)空軍一架RC-135V信號(hào)情報(bào)偵察機(jī)在俄黑海艦隊(duì)基地塞瓦斯托波爾西南約160公里處進(jìn)行了長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的巡邏。烏克蘭海軍方面也承認(rèn)，對(duì)俄黑海艦隊(duì)的多次襲擊，都依托于美國(guó)提供的精準(zhǔn)情報(bào)。

美國(guó)還通過衛(wèi)星系統(tǒng)向?yàn)蹩颂m提供了關(guān)鍵支持。例如，美國(guó)太空探索技術(shù)公司向?yàn)蹩颂m提供的“星鏈”衛(wèi)星通信系統(tǒng)，已經(jīng)成為烏克蘭保持前后方通信和指揮，或遙控小型無人機(jī)/無人艇發(fā)動(dòng)精確襲擊時(shí)不可或缺的裝備。同時(shí)，五角大樓還設(shè)立了專門機(jī)構(gòu)，負(fù)責(zé)識(shí)別和標(biāo)注西方商業(yè)衛(wèi)星公司拍攝的俄烏沖突前線的海量衛(wèi)星照片，并將這些關(guān)鍵的衛(wèi)星情報(bào)直接提供給烏克蘭軍隊(duì)和情報(bào)部門，供后續(xù)作戰(zhàn)指揮使用。俄羅斯媒體披露，俄軍前線部隊(duì)俘獲的烏軍設(shè)備證實(shí)，烏軍很多行動(dòng)都直接受到北約（主要是美軍）指揮。

路透社3月1日?qǐng)?bào)道稱，美國(guó)向?yàn)蹩颂m提供了關(guān)鍵的防空武器和急需的情報(bào)。由于烏克蘭遠(yuǎn)程防空雷達(dá)早在俄烏沖突爆發(fā)后不久就被摧毀，目前烏克蘭的防空作戰(zhàn)幾乎完全依靠部署在周邊國(guó)家的北約雷達(dá)和預(yù)警機(jī)。如果美國(guó)切斷與烏克蘭的情報(bào)共享，相當(dāng)于烏克蘭“失去了對(duì)戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)局勢(shì)的判斷能力”，對(duì)于戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)形勢(shì)的影響可能比停止武器供應(yīng)更為直接。

In addition, the Kiev Independent News reported that officials from the U.S. International Development Agency, which handles Ukrainian affairs, stated on February 28 that the U.S. government has canceled plans to assist Ukraine in restoring power to its electrical grid. Over the past three months, Russian forces have launched 30 large-scale attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, including power plants, substations, and transmission lines. This development is particularly concerning for Ukraine, as the cancellation of U.S. aid will not only weaken the country's ability to maintain winter power supplies but also disrupt its own production of key weapons, which are assembled domestically from purchased parts. For instance, the use of first-person perspective drones in Ukraine's conflict has become more prevalent, but their production is constrained by the immense costs of modernizing Ukrainian frontline equipment. Without U.S. support, Ukraine will face a severe shortage of power, which will also severely impact its ability to supply critical local manufacturing components.

Ukrainian soldiers are now deploying the "Satellite Link" system

Can Europe fill the gap?

The threat from the U.S. cutting off comprehensive U.S.-led aid to Ukraine has caused significant unease among European countries that support Ukraine's strong stance against Russia. The BBC reported on March 1 that, according to the German research institute Kieler研究所, from the cumulative U.S.-led aid to Ukraine, Europe has provided 1,380 billion dollars, while the United States has provided 1,190 billion dollars. According to the Center for a World Order at the U.S.智庫, "The War Project," Europe, along with the UK and Norway, has provided and committed more than 204 billion dollars in military and non-military aid to Ukraine, exceeding the U.S.-led aid of 1,830 billion dollars.

After leaving the U.S., Volodymyr Zaliansky received warm reception in the UK. On March 1, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the UK will commit 2.26 billion pounds in financial aid to strengthen Ukraine's defense. On March 2, Johnson hosted a峰會(huì)議 in London, bringing together leaders from 14 European countries, with the aim of securing more military and financial support for Ukraine.

However, analysts believe that even if Europe can increase its aid to Ukraine to fill the gap left by the U.S., in practical terms, Europe will struggle to match the U.S. in providing actual military and intelligence support. Over the past decade, European countries have neglected defense spending, and prior to NATO, former Warsaw Pact countries already provided almost all of Ukraine's inventory of Soviet-era weapons, including F-29 fighter jets, T-72 tanks, Su-24 artillery, etc. After three years of extensive aid to Ukraine, most European countries can only provide a small number of weapons to Ukraine. For example, the UK currently has about 150輛“挑戰(zhàn)者2” tanks in service, but only 25 can be deployed. The UK has also exhausted its own inventory of the "Storm Shadow" missile system in supplying Ukraine. France faces similar challenges, with only 18輛“凱撒”自行榴彈炮 available from its own inventory, significantly impacting its readiness. Therefore, it will be difficult for Europe to continue providing sufficient weapons to Ukraine.

Moreover, Europe relies entirely on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) led by the U.S. for intelligence collection and analysis on the battlefield. If Europe loses this assistance, it will struggle to provide critical battlefield intelligence support to Ukraine.

Therefore, a European military source acknowledged that without new support from the Biden administration, Ukraine's situation could become "extremely complex" by the end of this year or early next year.