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來源：央廣軍事

加沙?；鸬谝浑A段已于當(dāng)?shù)貢r間3月1日告一段落，以色列與哈馬斯就?；饏f(xié)議的第二階段未能達(dá)成共識。目前雙方博弈進(jìn)入關(guān)鍵期，?；饏f(xié)議的第二階段能否推進(jìn)仍存疑。

三種可能的發(fā)展

資料圖：加沙地帶地區(qū)（來源：央視新聞）

3月2日，以色列與哈馬斯就?；饐栴}各自發(fā)布聲明。哈馬斯表示將繼續(xù)推進(jìn)加沙地帶?；饏f(xié)議第二階段，并指以色列違反了已簽署的協(xié)議。與此同時，以色列總理辦公室表示同意執(zhí)行美國提出的"延續(xù)第一階段?；?方案。同一天，以色列國防軍阻止了人道主義援助進(jìn)入加沙地帶，并關(guān)閉了加沙地帶的過境點(diǎn)。軍事觀察員牛新春對未來加沙停火可能出現(xiàn)的三種情況進(jìn)行了深入分析。

牛新春：

第一種情況是第二階段談判能夠成功達(dá)成協(xié)議。

第二種情況是第一階段已告結(jié)束，第二階段談判尚未啟動，因此無法推進(jìn)第二階段，這對以色列不利。例如，未來幾周內(nèi)，哈馬斯無需釋放以色列扣押人員，但以色列需要向哈馬斯提出一些條件，如允許救援物資進(jìn)入加沙地帶，以及讓加沙境內(nèi)的巴勒斯坦人可以自由流動。這些條件對哈馬斯而言是具有吸引力的。

第三種情況是以色列將"第一階段?；?方案再次延期，不進(jìn)入第二階段。這對以色列有利，但對哈馬斯不利。因為以色列無需徹底結(jié)束戰(zhàn)爭并撤出加沙地帶，而哈馬斯仍需繼續(xù)執(zhí)行第一階段停火協(xié)議，每周釋放一定數(shù)量的以色列扣押人員。

"免費(fèi)"談判？

Photo: Israel Foreign Minister Sareg (Source: CCTV News)

According to the local time of March 2, Israel Foreign Minister Sareg indicated that Israel is willing to engage in negotiations for the second phase of a ceasefire agreement with Hamas in exchange for the release of his country's detained personnel. However, if Hamas refuses to release these detained individuals, Israel will not participate in "unconditional" negotiations for the second phase of the ceasefire agreement. Mr. Niu Xin further elucidated the underlying meaning of Israel's so-called "unconditional" negotiations.

The first step is to block the entry of rescue supplies into Gaza, a measure that Israel has already begun implementing since March 2, local time. If Hamas continues to reject Israel's proposals in the near future, Israel's next step may involve restricting the movement of Gaza residents and relocating northern Gaza residents back to the south as part of preparatory measures for potential conflict. The third step is to cut off power supply in Gaza entirely. Of course, the fourth step could involve launching a large-scale war across the entire Gaza Strip.

The U.S. has been actively interfering

The巴以 conflict is deeply divided

U.S. National Security Advisor Rubio recently stated that the Trump administration has decided to revoke portions of武器embargoes under the Biden administration, using emergency powers to accelerate the provision of approximately $400 million in military aid to Israel. From Mr. Rubio's perspective, given the U.S. interference and the fundamental conflicting goals between the two sides, the outlook for the second phase of the ceasefire agreement negotiations in Gaza appears bleak.

Based on the current situation, it is highly unlikely that the U.S. and Israel will reach an agreement on the second phase of the ceasefire negotiations. As a result, the U.S. and Israel have proposed a transitional solution — delaying the first phase of the ceasefire agreement.

Why is Israel unwilling to begin negotiations for the second phase? The reason is that the U.S. and Israel's objectives are to completely eliminate Hamas before agreeing to end the war and have Israel's forces withdraw from Gaza. Hamas, on the other hand, insists on requiring Israel to end the war first to ensure its survival, leading to a sharp divergence in stance between the two sides. The negotiations have been particularly difficult over the past year due to the fact that their objectives are deeply opposed.

Interviewee: Xu Lan