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北京大學新結構經(jīng)濟學研究院院長 林毅夫代表

只要 domestic matters are handled properly, regardless of external conditions, we can navigate challenges effectively. I believe, along our path, leveraging our strengths, we can achieve high-quality development.

China is a large economy centered on domestic circulations. Therefore, I believe that as long as domestic matters are properly managed, regardless of external conditions, we can continue to move forward.

In 2024, China's economic performance exhibited a pattern of high, medium-low, and then rising. With further policy effects, I believe that by 2025, China's economy will surpass the previous year's performance.

China possesses significant potential. In traditional manufacturing, we can develop new productive forces through digitalization, smartification, and greening. In emerging and future industries, we have a highly educated workforce, a large domestic market, and comprehensive industrial support. Leveraging these strengths to develop new productive forces, we can lead the fourth industrial revolution in many sectors. Under these policy advantages and industry conditions, I believe that by building on our domestic circulation, we can overcome any challenges in 2025 and maintain sustained economic growth.

Some individuals express concerns about exports to the U.S., but I think we can navigate even if we face challenges. By doing so, we can not only address existing issues but also widen the gap.

Looking at U.S. trade, although the U.S. initiated a trade war against China in 2018, China's exports to the U.S. in 2024 were still approximately 22% higher than in 2017. Our exported products to the U.S. have a comparative advantage, and even with additional tariffs, the fundamental laws of economics ensure that trade benefits both parties. Thus, U.S. trade with China continues to grow.

Regarding global trade, while growth has slowed, China's trade growth remains strong, increasing by over 50% from 2017 to 2024. This reflects our ability to produce competitively priced high-quality products, making external tariffs ineffective. Trade remains a mutually beneficial principle.

Combining our comparative advantages, focusing on domestic work and developing new productive forces, we can continuously enhance productivity levels and improve product quality and efficiency. Even in the face of uncertainties of the future, all countries must consume and invest. China's exports will continue to grow. We can remain confident that, regardless of global trade conditions, China will maintain a positive development trajectory.

Additionally, advancements in technologies like AI present new opportunities. By leveraging our large domestic market and technological strengths, we can develop highly competitive new industries in AI. Moreover, through AI's smartification and digitalization, we can transform traditional industries, boosting our competitiveness. As AI technology is open-source, we can share its benefits with other countries, contributing to global development. I believe this is an area we will excel in by 2025 and beyond, with notable achievements.

過去，許多人認為中國的 發(fā)展道路 必須效仿 西方發(fā)達國家 的模式，許多國家 對中國抱有懷疑態(tài)度。 中國 改革開放以來，通過 有效市場 和 有為政府 的"雙輪驅動"，運用產(chǎn)業(yè)政策，幫助新興產(chǎn)業(yè) 度過發(fā)展中的瓶頸，取得了舉世矚目的成就。如今，包括 美國 在內(nèi)的 國際界 一些政經(jīng)界人士紛紛提出向中國 學習 的要求，而一些新興市場經(jīng)濟體和 發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體 對中國的發(fā)展模式也寄予厚望。 我相信，沿著 我們的道路，充分發(fā)揮 我們的優(yōu)勢，就一定能實現(xiàn) 質量發(fā)展， 到新中國成立100年時， 我們的中國 將全面建成社會主義現(xiàn)代化強國， 實現(xiàn)中華民族的偉大復興。

（ 《 體 》 記者 林琳 整理）

原標題： 林毅 復 人民日報 走筆： 逆風 也能 舶行

欄目主編： 秦紅 文字編輯： 宋慧 圖片來源： 上觀 圖片編輯： 蘇唯

來源： 作者： 人民日報客戶端